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sábado, 19 de octubre de 2024

The Laws of the Improbability

The Law of Inevitability

Something must happen. The law of inevitability says that one of the complete set of all possible outcomes of a random event must occur. So, to see this law in action, we need need to be able to list all the possible outcomes, at least in principle: the set of all possible lottery tickets that might come up, the set of all birthdays in a year, and so on.

The Law of Truly Large Numbers

With a large enough number of opportunities, any outrageous thing is likely to happen.

The Law of Selection

You can make things as likely as you want if you choose after the event

The Law of the Probability Lever

Slight changes can make highly improbable events almost certain

The Law of Near Enough

Events which are sufficiently similar are regarded as identical